--- title: Investors Chronicle article features Ron Piccinini, PhD description: SmartRisk algorithms model past returns to find the likelihood of severe falls in asset prices and estimate the average loss in the worst 0.5 percent of months. --- [Login](https://www.covisum.com/login-experience) | [Call: 402-235-4500](tel:1-402-235-4500) | [Contact Us](https://www.covisum.com/contact) ** [![covisum-logo](https://www.covisum.com/hs-fs/hubfs/covisum-logo.png?width=264&height=41&name=covisum-logo.png "covisum-logo")](https://www.covisum.com/) [![Start Your Free Trial](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/2755909/b23743cd-d0df-4907-a66d-293b58ab1164.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/2755909/b23743cd-d0df-4907-a66d-293b58ab1164) [![Contact Us](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/2755909/6c6d7fe7-e094-4fc0-9c82-d93d4ccbb532.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/2755909/6c6d7fe7-e094-4fc0-9c82-d93d4ccbb532) # Investors Chronicle article features Ron Piccinini, PhD [IN THE NEWS  |  ](https://www.covisum.com/blog/topic/in-the-news)10/26/17 10:31 AM  |  by [Katie Godbout, Vice President of Sales & Marketing](https://www.covisum.com/blog/author/katie-godbout-vice-president-of-sales-marketing) *Investors Chronicle* published an article, "[Does fortune favour the bold?](https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/managing-your-money/2017/07/27/does-fortune-favour-the-bold/)" by [James Norrington](https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/james-norrington/)** **on July 27, 2017. Here's an excerpt we love: > The [SmartRisk](https://www.covisum.com/smartrisk) algorithms model past returns to work out the likelihood of severe falls in asset prices. Assigning probabilities to parameters that have influenced sell-offs, they estimate the average size of loss in the worst 0.5 percent of months. Unlike models based on Gaussian bell curves (which assume asset price returns occur with a normally distributed frequency), this method allows for the fact that, empirically, serious falls in the stock market occur far more often. Therefore, while the SmartRisk system doesn’t lay claim to clairvoyance and cannot predict a major downturn, it allows investors to build a more realistic estimate of potential losses. Later in the article, Covisum's Director of Product Development Ron Piccinini, PhD points out that the subtle difference in meaning between gains and returns is important, “CAGR and reward-to-risk (Omega Ratio) are somewhat distant cousins. The Omega Ratio is the ratio of expected gain over expected losses, not expected return over expected losses. So, an investment can have a great CAGR, but if it takes a lot of losses to achieve it, it will have a lower ratio.” [Read the full article. ](https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/managing-your-money/2017/07/27/does-fortune-favour-the-bold/) ### Share this article [![Share on Facebook](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/facebook-24x24.png)](http://www.facebook.com/share.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.covisum.com%2Fblog%2Finvestors-chronicle-article-features-ron-piccinini-phd%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Dfacebook) [![Share on LinkedIn](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/linkedin-24x24.png)](http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.covisum.com%2Fblog%2Finvestors-chronicle-article-features-ron-piccinini-phd%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Dlinkedin) [![Share on Twitter](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/twitter-24x24.png)](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?original_referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.covisum.com%2Fblog%2Finvestors-chronicle-article-features-ron-piccinini-phd%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Dtwitter&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.covisum.com%2Fblog%2Finvestors-chronicle-article-features-ron-piccinini-phd%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Dtwitter&source=tweetbutton&text=Investors%20Chronicle%20article%20features%20Ron%C2%A0Piccinini%2C%20PhD) ## Related Blog Articles [ ### In The News Covisum's president, Joe Elsasser, CFP®, featured in Financial Planning Read ](https://www.covisum.com/blog/covisums-president-joe-elsasser-cfp-featured-in-financial-planning) [ ### Video FinPlan Friday: Running Stress Tests and Crafting Contingency Plans Read ](https://www.covisum.com/blog/finplan-friday-stress-tests-and-contingency-plans) [ ### Webinar Live Webinar: 7 Steps to Fantastic Seminars Read ](https://www.covisum.com/blog/live-webinar-7-steps-to-fantastic-seminars) [See All Articles](https://www.covisum.com/blog) ## Covisum’s ecosystem of solutions can help you grow. 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